The U.S. metal forming industry’s performance over the past six months has been mixed with continued flat production combined with some early signs of industry optimism.
This is again reflected by the Federal Reserve’s industrial production index for fabricated metal products, an economic indicator that measures the real output of businesses in the fabricated metal product manufacturing sector in the U.S. by tracking the physical production of goods within this segment. This has hovered in the same range since May. Similarly, capacity utilization for fabricated metals has been stalled at approximately 76% since May, echoing the decent industry performance that stubbornly will not break out of this pattern into a period of growth.
Although there is probably a combination of factors causing this malaise, the main factor appears to be that many end markets have caught up on inventory into 2024, meaning there has been little need to order additional parts. For example, Mayville Engineering Company, a contract manufacturer of fabricated metal parts, reported a 19.1% year-over-year drop in net sales for Q2 2025, attributing it to lower customer demand across most of its end markets. Jag Reddy, President and CEO, stated, “Customer demand remained soft throughout the quarter due to elevated uncertainty across the majority of our end markets.”
Despite these various headwinds, we are seeing some positive signs in the overall market. The industry’s largest trade show, FABTECH, set a record for attendance. Furthermore, businesses tied to the construction, infrastructure (particularly data centers) and defense sectors have seen upticks. We will explore some of these factors as well as overall industry sentiment and what participants are expecting over the next three months on the following pages.
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